Meanwhile, back at the home office
An actual state budget & a major energy bill are kind of possible
To help keep things in perspective, I like to think of Chapel Hill as a factory town.
Up at the factory on the hill they make educated people and arts and sciences and stuff. The main headquarters for this enterprise and the place where the annual budget is set is located on Jones Street in Raleigh.
Often, as we have been reminded perhaps a little bit too much lately, what happens on Jones Street has big implications for the factory.
So take note: over the next couple of weeks shit’s going down in Raleigh. Large scale deals on the budget, energy and federal aid are either going to come together or not.
It’ll shake things up either way, but my guess right now is that the deals are more likely to happen. That’s kind of remarkable given the last few years.
The energy bill is significant because of what’s in it, but also because of the way it was announced.
At a little after 3:30 on Friday afternoon, Governor Roy Cooper, Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger and House Speaker Tim Moore put out identical statements announcing an agreement on the energy legislation. I had a hard time remembering when they last did something like that.
The bill, fewer pages and cleaner than the last version, is scheduled to start moving through committees on Tuesday.
Cooper, Berger and Moore are also in active negotiations over the budget. This follows the House and Senate settling their differences and kicking the proposal over to the governor. Berger said last week that some of the budget bill has already been pre-shopped with the governor’s staff.
There is no tell-tale whiff of biscuits in the air this time. A statement I got from the governor’s press secretary for a story I wrote for today (Monday) specifically mentioned that all three are actively involved in the talks. Negotiations could take a couple of weeks.
If successful, they’ll drop a bill that the governor says he can sign sometime mid-month. I have no idea when we’ll see the thing.
A deal on the budget would put state government back on track in a number of ways. Aside from being a non-stop bitterly partisan messaging festival, the two and a half year budget stalemate has required a lot of rewiring and temporary fixes in the guts of departments and agencies. More importantly, a lot of money locked up by the impasse would flow. Correction: a hell of a lot of money, including money to match even more federal money.
No deal means more rewiring and fixes, a shutdown of new initiatives and lots of question marks on how things are going to work and how much people are going to get paid.
As we go forward, it’s good to keep in mind how much scratch the state has accumulated over these weird budget years with massive inflows of federal COVID aid, disaster relief and an economy that is still managing to grow despite a pandemic.
In February, the state was running a pretty big surplus, overshooting revenue projections by $4 billion. By the end of the fiscal year in June, it had hit $6.5 billion.
To put that in perspective, the entire spend for state government is about $25 billion a year.
On top of a revenue surplus, there are hundreds of millions still unspent from last year, a billion or two in federal disaster aid and covid relief accounts and a hefty sum already in the state’s rainy day fund.
Remember that when you see programs being cut here in Chapel Hill that don’t even qualify as rounding errors in Raleigh. Despite pronouncements to the contrary, almost anything being cut is not being cut because of some dire need for belt tightening.
Knowing that puts things like last week’s announcement of a round of cuts to university library services in a different light. Also remember that when it comes to state government, including the university and especially the legislature, things don’t make sense for a reason.
Cutting academic journal subscriptions doesn’t seem to make sense as a budget strategy. But it sure makes sense in the context of continuing attempts to intimidate the faculty. If it hasn’t happened already, expect to see certain journals and probably individual articles taken wildly out of context to justify the cuts.
Anyway, good luck everybody.
Here are some news stories and items of information:
• COVID Stats — A change in the way vaccinations are counted lowers Orange County total by 16,000.
• Race and data — Mike Ogle has an interesting post at his Stone Walls substack on what’s behind demographic shifts here. It’s titled “Chapel Hill was half black.”
• Breakthrough pill — UNC study of Molnupiravir provided key findings on effectiveness against coronavirus.
• Asterisk — A predictable drop in CHCCS test scores in language followed by predictable difficulty in trying to explain it and what it might mean for the students. A story with charts.
• Eats — Bill Smith on restaurant reopenings and an all important persimmon recipe.
• Sorry in person meeting lovers — Chapel Hill boards to contine virtual meetings through October
• A road I used to drive to get away from it all — Pittsboro rezoned 700 acres for a 2K unit 55+ development on Moncure Road. Believable and strange to think about at the same time.
• Advocates slam NC House budget on crisis pregnancy center funding
• Shoutout to Barry Yeoman for incredible work writing about a fight over swamps in Robeson County.
A reminder that in person early voting is starting up next week. Here’s the info/faq page at Orange County Board of Elections. Early and often, friends, early and often. — Kirk Ross